At the beginning of 2026, the export structure of Norwegian cod witnessed two significant changes that deserve high attention from the industry: the "primary destination" of frozen cod has clearly shifted to Vietnam, while in traditional European dominant categories such as salted/dried cod, products from China are increasingly entering core consumer markets like Brazil and Portugal. Against the backdrop of "reduced quotas, high raw material prices, and pressured demand", the convergence of these two forces is reshaping the flow and competitive landscape of the global cod industry chain.
Data from the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC) shows that in January 2026, Norway's frozen cod exports stood at only 2,541 tons, a year-on-year decline of approximately 30%. The export value was 274 million Norwegian kroner, also down by 7% year-on-year. While the total volume weakened, the most notable change was in the destination: Vietnam, with 1,055 tons, became the largest market for Norway's frozen cod, accounting for about 40% of the month's frozen cod exports, and saw a year-on-year growth of as high as 141%.
Behind this "Vietnamization" is the redistribution of the whitefish processing chain. NSC whitefish analyst Eivind Braekkan pointed out that the market originally expected that after the "easing of US tariffs on China", exports of frozen cod to China would rebound, but in reality, Vietnam has become the most significant destination for growth. Vietnam, like China, has strong whitefish processing capabilities and can process frozen cod into frozen fish fillets and other products for re-export to end markets such as the United States and the United Kingdom. In other words, the Norwegian frozen cod is not experiencing a sudden surge in demand, but rather the supply chain continues to choose to complete processing and re-export in Vietnam.
The direct implications for the trade end are as follows: On the one hand, the tight supply of raw materials makes buyers more dependent on "stable processing and export channels"; on the other hand, Vietnam is occupying a more stable position in the supply chain to the US and other markets. In the short term, the expectation of a "reversal" of Norwegian direct supply to China should not be too high.
Unlike the decline in frozen product exports, Norway's fresh cod exports in January reached 3,380 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%, with export value reaching 316 million Norwegian kroner, an increase of 53 million Norwegian kroner compared to the same period last year. However, it should be noted that despite a reduction of approximately 16% in the cod quota compared to the previous year, the fishing season still had a relatively strong start; this also implies that if resources become tighter in subsequent months, price fluctuations may be more intense.
The more crucial structural change lies in farmed cod. In January, the export volume of farmed cod increased by 8% year-on-year, accounting for 34% of the total export value of fresh cod. Against the backdrop of what NSC calls "the lowest quota since 1991", the stable supply of farmed cod is becoming an important "stabilizing force" in the fresh market. However, whether the terminal can continue to accept high prices still needs to be observed.
Meanwhile, Skrei continues to pursue a high-end strategy: in January, it exported 496 tons with a value of 56 million Norwegian kroner, a year-on-year increase of 19%; the price reached 113 Norwegian kroner per kilogram, 11 Norwegian kroner per kilogram higher than that of ordinary fresh cod. The NSC's concern is also straightforward: when "ordinary cod" is already at a record high price, whether consumers are still willing to pay a brand premium will determine the upper limit of the subsequent market situation.
If the changes in Vietnam occurred at the "raw material end of frozen cod + processing and re-export end", then the changes in China are more concentrated in the competitive end of the salted/dried cod consumption market. NSC data shows that Norway's clipfish (dried cod) exports in January were 6,643 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15%, but the export value reached 649 million Norwegian kroner, a year-on-year increase of 18%; among them, the export value of dried cod increased by 77% year-on-year, indicating that high prices are compensating for the decline in sales volume.
From the market perspective, Brazil remained the largest market for dried cod in January, with an export value of 254 million Norwegian kroner. Meanwhile, the traditional core market Portugal saw a "surge in value" during the off-season, with the export value of dried cod reaching 112 million Norwegian kroner, nearly three times that of the same period last year. Regarding salted fish, the export value to Portugal also increased by 229% year-on-year. NSC explained that this was related to the increased landing of fresh cod at the end of last year, providing more raw materials for salting.
But while Norway has managed to hold on to its market share through high prices, the NSC has clearly warned that the higher the price, the more attractive the substitutes become. It has observed that last year, exports of salted and dried products from China to markets such as Brazil, Portugal and the Dominican Republic increased, posing a competitive threat to Norway's traditional dominance in these categories. For Norway, this is no longer just a marginal supply issue, but could evolve into real market share erosion in some markets and channels.
When the two lines are placed together, the changes in the trade of cod in 2026 become clearer:
- Vietnam has taken the leading position in the field of frozen cod, essentially because its processing and re-export chain is more stable and concentrated. When upstream resources are tight, orders are more likely to flow to nodes that can quickly process and connect to European and American channels.
- China's expansion in the markets of salted/dried cod and other similar products is more about entering traditional markets with alternative supplies during high-price cycles, exerting dual pressure on Norway in terms of both price and market share.
For domestic whitefish trading and processing enterprises, the key points ahead are not just about whether "true cod is expensive or not", but rather three matters:
- How to lock in the volume of frozen raw materials.
- How to select nodes in the processing chain.
- How to take advantage of price windows in salted/dried products to establish more stable overseas channels.
